These series inform the argument and sit outside it.
The New York Fed's estimates of the neutral real interest rate. 3 series: United States, Euro area, Canada. Latest, 2026 Q2: United States 1.01%; Euro area 0.09%; Canada 1.76%.
r*, the real short-term rate expected to prevail when an economy is at full strength and inflation is stable. These are the New York Fed's model estimates, revised with each quarterly release, and carry wide uncertainty; Balance of Power reports them and makes no estimate of its own.
See also: Laurence Wilse-Samson, "Global Finance: A Money View", chapter 15, Central Bank Operations